Tropical Storm Three (03S) Tracking Southward9.3S 73.3E
Tropical Storm Three (03S), located approximately 465 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked southward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convective bands are building towards the low level circulation center (LLCC).
The track has shifted southward over the past 12 hours as an approaching mid-latitude trough has caused the deep layered steering subtropical ridge (STR) to re-align into a more meridional pattern. The track shifts slightly westward over the next 24 hours as the STR adjusts to the passage of the trough.
Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is currently located under an STR axis which is providing the system a low to moderate (10 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear environment. The meridional pattern will persist through the remainder of the forecast period, causing the system to rapidly transit poleward.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain favorable (28 to 29 degrees Celsius) but as the system moves south of 20 degrees south, the SSTs rapidly decrease, leading to a weakening trend beyond TAU 72. By TAU 120, extra-tropical transition is expected to begin as TC 03S moves into the mid-latitude flow. Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.