Convection of Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B)12.3N 82.9E
An SSMIS 37ghz microwave image shows convection remains fragmented and broken while the Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) of Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) remains fairly ambiguous.
Surface observations from coastal India show large (>20 degrees) dew point temperature spreads indicative of a dry air mass while the latest microwave derived total precipitable water loop continues to show this dry continental air is being ingested into the lower levels of the system. This dry air ingestion continues to be the reason for the fragmented and flaring nature of the convection despite favorable sea surface temperatures.
The initial position is based upon the MSI loop and aforementioned SSMIS microwave image with low confidence due to the poor definition and broad nature of the LLCC. The initial intensity remains at 45 knots based on a Dvorak current intensity estimate of 45 knots from PGTW and the overall organization of the system. Upper-level analysis reveals a marginal environment of strong diffluence aloft providing favorable outflow while vertical wind shear (VWS) has increased to moderate to strong levels (20-30 knots).