Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Expected to Intensify13.8N 81.3E
Model guidance indicates Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) will remain on a general northeasterly track under the influence of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge (STR) in the eastern portion of the Bay of Bengal.
Favorable sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius) along the forecast track and improving upper level support (increasing divergence and decreasing VWS), will help to support a steady intensification through TAU 48. Increasing track speeds and VWS as TC 01B moves north of the subtropical ridge (STR) axis will start to weaken the system prior to landfall around TAU 72.
Beyond landfall, the low level circulation center (LLCC) will quickly weaken and dissipate as it tracks through Bangladesh into northern Myanmar. Dynamic model guidance has come into good agreement with the forecast track to the northeast.