Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Expected to Intensify and Make Landfall Over Bangladesh14.5N 85.2E
Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is expected to overcome the current dry air entrainment and intensify to a peak of 75 knots by TAU 72 as the system crosses the ridge axis into an area of increased poleward outflow with its exposure into the strong westerlies.
After TAU 96, the system will make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, as a significant cyclone all while weakening due to the land interaction. Dynamic model guidance continues to show two different track solutions. GFDN and NAVGEM continue to track the system to the northwest into northeastern India, which seems unlikely as the model trackers seem to be erroneously tracking into the previously mentioned shortwave trough.
GFS, ECMWF and EGRR have stayed consistent with the recurve scenario into Bangladesh albeit at different translational speeds. Due to this, the JTWC forecast remains faster and east of multi-model consensus to offset the NAVGEM and GFDN solutions and is consistent with the previous forecast. Due to the large spread in the model solutions and the low confidence in the initial position, forecast confidence remains low.