Tropical Storm 07W (Molave/Isang) Expected to Make Landfall Near Hong Kong This Weekend20.6N 117.4E
Tropical Storm Molave (07W), named Isang in the Philippines, is located approximately 305 nautical miles north-northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.
TS07W continues tracking along the southwestern periphery of an extension of the subtropical ridge, located to its northeast. Multispectral imagery indicates that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has quickly become organized with tightly curved banding developing toward it.
As Molave tracks to the north of Luzon, the inflow of relatively drier air (apparent in total precipitable water products) has led to a decrease in deep convection on the southeastern periphery. However, this has been offset by increased deep convection on the northern periphery.
Upper level analysis still indicates strong equatorward outflow is present. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development, and the ocean heat content (OHC) products indicate there is a large region of deep, warm water between Luzon and Taiwan helping to fuel a brief period of rapid development.
High pressure to the north and northeast of 07W will steer the storm into the South China Sea this weekend and will take aim at China. However, the OHC will decrease as TS07W tracks into the northern portion of the South China Sea and, in association with increased vertical wind shear, will begin to weaken. Molave is forecast to make landfall near Hong Kong around TAU 36 and quickly begin to dissipate, with full dissipation by TAU 72.
Before it reaches China, 07W will pass through the Luzon Strait Friday. Despite remaining over water, 07W will impact Luzon Island with locally heavy rains and strong, damaging wind gusts Friday. Rainfall amounts could exceed 5 inches (125 mm) in some areas, resulting in flash flooding and landslides. Wind gusts could be as high as 70 mph (115 kph) during the day as well.