Tropical Depression Tim (20P) Forms Off Coast of Australia15S 140.9E
Tropical Depression Tim (20P), located approximately 240 nm north-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked southeastward at 13 knots over the past six hours.
Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts deep convection wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). A mosaic of recent microwave satellite imagery reveals a hook of deep convection forming along the southern and western peripheries, further verifying the improved wrapping of convection around the LLCC.
The current position is based on fixes from PGTW, KNES, and ABRF, as well as an extrapolation from an AMSU image, with fair confidence. The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots based on Dvorak estimates from PGTW and ABRF, as well as an OSCAT pass which revealed 30 knot winds.
Upper air analysis indicates TD 20P is south of a near equatorial ridge (NER) axis, providing good speed and directional divergence to promote outflow. Some data suggests a point source is forming overhead. The vertical wind shear (VWS) is currently moderate, at 15-20 knots.