Tropical Cyclone Two (02A) Situated on the Horn of Africa10.9N 51.3E
Tropical Cyclone Two (02A), located approximately 65 nm north-northeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia, has tracked west-northwest-ward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 17 ft.
Animated water vapor imagery shows increased poleward outflow with the approach of a mid-latitude trough to the north. This event has deepened the convection associated with the system. The current position is based on animated multispectral imagery and extrapolated from microwave imagery.
The current intensity is based on a Dvorak estimate of T3.5. Upper level analysis indicates TC 02A is under the ridge axis in an area of moderate vertical wind shear (VWS). The system is expected to continue to track slowly to the west into the Gulf of Aden, steered by the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north.
As the aforementioned mid-latitude trough digs further south, an increase in VWS coupled with the entrainment of drier air from the Somali Desert and cooling sea surface temperatures of the gulf, TC 02A is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone over water by TAU 72. The available numeric guidance is in overall agreement with this track forecast.