Tropical Cyclone Phet (03A) South of Oman20.2N 59.4E
Tropical Cyclone Phet (03A), located approximately 300 nm south of Muscat, Oman, has tracked northwestward at 3 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 28 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the structure of the central area of convection continues to weaken with the current intensity guidance at 5.5/6.5.
Over the past six hours there has been a slight decrease in track speed, but the system remains on a consistent track to the northwest.
Recent observations from Masirah indicate winds remain around 20 knots from the east-northeast with the system approximately 115 nm away. The strongest winds remain on the southern half of TC 03A, with continued support from the south-west monsoonal flow.
Total precipitable water products indicate that dry air is beginning to entrain along the southern periphery of TC Phet. The decrease in available moisture will cause intensity values to remain on a downward trend throughout the forecast period. The weakening will be enhanced as the system moves over land, increasing dry air entrainment.
The track for Phet is expected to remain on a north-westward vector through the next 24 hours as a mid-level subtropical ridge (STR) to the east of the system remains in place. A transitory mid-latitude trough will begin to weaken the str allowing TC 03A to track northeastward around the STR.
TC 03A will track more quickly to the northeast as it begins to have more interaction with the mid-latitude flow. Intensity will remain low as it crosses over water into Pakistan, but will completely dissipate by TAU 120 over land. The track speeds for Phet have been decreased from the previous forecast, as model guidance indicates a slower transition to the mid-latitudes. This forecast is based on the consensus of all available model aids.