Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) Forms by Cape York Peninsula, Australia – January 22nd, 201317S 138.5E
On 17 January, TCWC Darwin reported that a tropical low had formed near the coast of Northern Australia. The system intensified into a category one tropical cyclone on 21 January (click here for previous images).
Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P), located approximately 155 nm east-northeast of Mornington Island, Australia, has tracked east- northeastward at 05 knots over the past six hours. The initial position is based on radar imagery with good confidence. In the full image, the outline of the Cape York Peninsula can be observed in grey, through the convection, due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.
Over the past twelve hours, animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery has depicted slight weakening of deep convection near the center. However, IR imagery continues to show an extensive area of deep convection displaced to the north. The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots
Radar imagery depicts weak convective banding associated with the broad low-level circulation center (LLCC). Recent observations from Kowanyama, approximately 20 nm southwest of the center, indicate sustained surface winds of only 15 to 20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots.
TC 11P is forecast to track east-northeastward through TAU 12 and is expected to dissipate by TAU 12. The remnants of the system should turn southward to southwestward in response to a building high to the south and are not forecast to track over the Coral Sea. Dynamic guidance is in good agreement on turning the system southward over land but differs on the timing and degree of the turn. Due to the broad nature of the LLCC and the spread in model solutions, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track.