Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Tracks Eastward14.1S 164.5W
Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 480 nautical miles west of
Bora Bora, has tracked eastward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convection has continued to flare and dissipate over the past 12 hours near the low level circulation center (LLCC). A broken band of deeper convection to the north of the LLCC is apparent, but has started to elongate east-west, out pacing the LLCC. This image shows convection associated with the system.
The upper level environment remains favorable with a point source anticyclone enhancing the equatorward and poleward out-flow channels. The LLCC has been difficult to locate under the sporadic convection, however, the current position is in fair agreement with the fixes from PGTW and PHFO.
Intensity has kept constant at 45 knots as the organization and convection have seen only small changes over the past 12 hours. The current forecast is based on the consensus of available model guidance, which indicates the mid-level near equatorial ridge, that is currently steering TC 12P, will track the system towards a developing extension of a subtropical ridge (STR) located to the southeast of Oli. This extension will then shift the track more south-southeast around TAU 36 to 48.
The track speed is expected to remain slow through the forecast period as the STR extension is expected to be weak through TAU 120. Intensity is forecast to increase through TAU 72 as improving upper level support enhances the poleward outflow, with favorable surface conditions persisting through TAU 72. However, vertical wind shear will begin to increase beyond TAU 72 to unfavorable levels hindering outflow. The lower level will also begin to track into a less favorable surface environment beyond TAU 72.