Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Moves South and Weakens26.6S 142W
Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 295 nautical miles south of Tahiti, has tracked southeastward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.
The cyclone has begun to weaken and accelerate poleward since the previous forecast. Both PGTW and PHFO have dropped their current intensity estimates half a T-number to 5.5 or 102 knots since the previous synoptic hour. The southern eye wall has begun to erode as the southernmost convection is sheared into the mid-latitude flow, leaving the eye ragged and irregular.
The cyclone will continue to transit along the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer subtropical ridge to the east while steadily weakening due to increased vertical wind shear and unfavorable sea surface temperatures/oceanic heat. The cyclone will begin to interact with a baroclinic boundary near TAU 36 and will transition to a fully extratropical system by TAU 48. Model guidance remains in relatively good agreement with the exception of the eastern outlier, TCLAPS.