Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Located Southwest of Tahiti14.7S 148.3W
Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 185 nautical miles southwest of Tahiti, has tracked southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 23 feet.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates a 17 nautical mile eye with deep convection decreasing in areal extent. This is evident in a an AMSU 89 GHZ microwave image which shows a symmetric eye wall with tightly curved convective banding wrapping into the center with slight erosion of deep convection over the southwest quadrant.
Water vapor imagery indicates that the system has good radial outflow, with enhanced poleward outflow associated with a midlatitude trough south of the system.
TC 12P has maintained an intensity of 115 knots over the past 12 hours with current Dvorak estimates of 102 to 115 knots. Upper level analysis indicates that the system is located in a favorable environment with weak vertical wind shear and an enhanced poleward outflow channel.
Oli is currently tracking southeastward along the southwestern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The system is forecast to accelerate and continue tracking southeastward as it interacts with the baroclinic zone and begins extra-tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 36. By TAU 72, TC 12P is expected to complete ETT. Numerical guidance is in good agreement with this forecast, with the exception of TCLAPS, which rapidly decreases the intensity and tracks the system south-southwest.