Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) Regenerates Along Southern Gulf of Carpentaria Coast16.2S 138.0E
Tropical Cyclone Olga (09), located approximately 100 nautical miles west of Mornington Island, has tracked northwestward at 7 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet. The system has regenerated along the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria with improved consolidation and tightly curved banding wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC).
The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 30 to 35 knots. The system is currently located in a region of high SST (31C) and favorable OHC values. Upper level analysis indicates that the system is under an upper level anticyclone with weak vertical wind shear and good radial outflow.
The system is currently tracking northwestward along the northern periphery of a low to mid level subtropical ridge (STR) over central Australia. The STR is expected to build northwestward after TAU 12, therefore, the system is forecast to slow and turn north to northeastward. By TAU 48 a deepening shortwave trough will break down the STR and, in combination with the near-equatorial ridge, provide an eastward to southeastward steering influence.
TC 09P is expected to slowly intensify through TAU 24 due to continued land interaction, but is forecast to intensify at a 15-20 knot rate per day under very favorable conditions. After TAU 72 the system is expected to weaken as it interacts with land and should dissipate by TAU 120. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement with this forecast although there are slight differences in the timing of the turn eastward.