Tropical Cyclone Nisha (10P) Expected to Intensify
Tropical Cyclone Nisha (10P), located approximately 450 nautical miles southeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa, has tracked eastsoutheastward at 16 knots over the past six hours. The maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.
Animated infrared imagery and a TRMM microwave image show an increase in low level organization within the past 12 hours as well as deep, convective banding wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC) from the east.
Upper level analysis shows the system is located just poleward of the near-equatorial ridge axis, causing moderate vertical wind shear, and that a mid-latitude trough to the southeast is currently supporting good poleward outflow.
The near-equatorial ridge is currently steering TC 10P and will continue to do so through TAU 96 when Nisha will track more south-southeastward due to a passing mid-latitude trough and subsequent reorientation of the ridge.
Additionally, Nisha will remain over warm waters (greater than 28 degrees celsius) and in favorable conditions for gradual intensification during the remainder of the forecast period. Numerical model guidance is in relatively good agreement with an east-southeastward track with the exception of the GFDN model which takes the system northward due to a forecast of weaker intensities.