Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (06S) Forecast to Weaken19.9S 112.5E
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (TC 06S), located approximately 240 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that TC 06S is weakening rapidly with diminishing deep convection. However, a 291833z AMSU image indicates deep convective banding over the southern circle with tightly-wrapped shallow banding elsewhere. A 291552z OCEANSAT image shows 30 to 35 knot winds and a symmetric circulation.
The initial intensity is assessed slightly higher than the scatterometer data based on an average of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots. There is fair confidence in the initial position based on the AMSU image.
TC 06S is tracking southward to south-southwestward along the western periphery of a deep subtropical ridge, which is entrenched over western Australia as evidenced by the latest Port Hedland sounding showing 25 to 35 knot north-northeasterly steering flow. There is high confidence in the JTWC forecast based on a 65-nm spread in dynamic model guidance at TAU 36. TC 06S is forecast to weaken throughout the forecast period and should dissipate over cool SST (less than 25ºC) by TAU 36.