Tropical Cyclone Lua (17S) Off Coast of Australia – March 15th, 201217.9S 108.8E
Tropical Cyclone Lua (17S), located approximately 385 nm north of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked east-southeastward at 02 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a symmetrical area of deep convection over a low level circulation center (LLCC) with tight spiral banding.
The initial intensity is assessed at 60 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 23 feet. Upper level analysis indicates TC 17S is approximately 05 degrees equatorward of a ridge axis with a point source to the northeast. The current VWS is moderate (20 knots). Animated water vapor imagery shows that Lua has maintained good outflow, offsetting the effects of the vertical wind shear (VWS).
The system is currently completing a turn to the southeast and is forecast to track southeastward under the steering influence of a deep layer ridge north of the australian continent. The along-track VWS is expected to relax towards the ridge axis allowing the system to continue steady intensification until making landfall after TAU 48. TC 17S will dissipate over land by TAU 96.