Tropical Cyclone Lua (17S) Forecast to Intensify15.8S 108.8E
Tropical Cyclone Lua (17S), located approximately 375 nm northwest of Port Hedland, Australia, has tracked eastward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows tightly curved convective banding wrapping into a low level circulation center (LLCC).
A microwave image depicts a low level eye feature, from which the initial position is based. Initial intensity is estimated at 65 to 77 knots. Upper level analysis indicates excellent radial outflow and low vertical wind shear. TC 17S has increased in translation speed over the past 12 hours due to the steering influence of a strengthening deep layer steering ridge to the north.
Lua is expected to turn poleward as the steering ridge reorients. The system is forecast to intensify under favorable upper level conditions and high ocean heat content with the peak intensity between TAU 24 and 36. Maximum significant wave height is 27 feet.