Tropical Cyclone Laila (01B) Off East Coast of India17.7N 83.2E
Tropical Cyclone Laila (01B), located approximately 270 nautical miles south-southwest of Visakhapatnam, India has tracked west-northwestward at 8 knots over the past six hours.
TC 01B has continued to consolidate over the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours (35 to 65 knots). Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a central dense overcast feature. A TRMM 37 ghz image shows a well-defined microwave eye feature with excellent convective banding. The current intensity is based on the high end of Dvorak estimates ranging from 45 knots to 65 knots. Animated water vapor imagery indicates good radial outflow enhanced by an upper-level trough over eastern Asia.
TC 01B is tracking along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge (STR) and is forecast to turn northward to north-northeastward as the STR re-orients in response to an approaching midlatitude shortwave trough. The available numerical guidance supports this track and also indicates increasing track speeds in the extended TAUs.
Laila is expected to make landfall near TAU 36 and should weaken below 35 knots by TAU 72 as it tracks over mountainous terrain. The remnants should continue tracking northeastward into northeastern India and Bangladesh.