Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Intensifying Steadily11.4S 56.2E
Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) will turn poleward after TAU 36 as a mid-latitude trough approaching from the southwest weakens the steering ridge. Steady intensification is expected over the next 36 hours as vertical wind shear relaxes and the cyclone passes across warm water. Enhanced poleward outflow after TAU 36 will result in a brief period of faster intensification before increasing westerly vertical wind shear ushers in slow weakening.
Although dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement with this forecast scenario, spread in the sharpness of the poleward turn remains. This trend is also noted in ensemble model products. Based on this spread in the guidance, there is decreased confidence in the JTWC forecast track after TAU 48. Maximum significant wave height is 19 feet.