Tropical Cyclone Garry (10P) North of American Samoa14.3S 170.7W
Tropical Cyclone Garry (10P), located approximately 140 nm north of Pago Pago, American Samoa, has tracked east-southeastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery continues to indicate slow consolidation with deep convective banding confined to the eastern semi-circle. An SSMIS 37ghz image depicts curved convective banding wrapping into the LLCC. There is fair confidence in the initial position, which is positioned on the western edge of the deep convection.
The initial intensity is assessed at 40 knots based on an average of Dvorak estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots. Surface observations at Pago Pago remain light at 10 to 15 knots. Upper-level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment with weak northwesterly vertical wind shear and fair poleward outflow.
TC 10P is forecast to track east-southeastward under the steering influence of the low- to mid- level near-equatorial ridge through TAU 72 but should turn southeastward in the extended TAUs as the subtropical ridge builds east of the system. With the exception of NOGAPS, model guidance is in good agreement. There is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track, which is positioned faster and equatorward of the multi-model consensus. TC 10P is forecast to intensify to a peak intensity of 75 knots by TAU 72.