Tropical Cyclone Freda (05P) Tracking East-southeastward at 8 Knots30S 165.0E
Tropical Cyclone Freda (05P), located approximately 225 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked east-southeastward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 25 feet.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a fully exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) that is starting to elongate and open along the north-south axis. There has been a recent burst of convection along the southern periphery of the LLCC as the system moves towards the northern portion of New Caledonia, but remains sheared from the center.
A partial pass from an ASCAT image showed predominantly 30 to 35 knots within the southeastern quadrant. The current intensity of 35 knots is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 30 to 35 knots and the previously mentioned ASCAT pass.
Upper level analysis indicates a deep layered mid-latitude trough located to the south of TC 05P and an upper level near equatorial ridge over the Solomon Islands are interacting to create high levels (30 knots) of vertical wind shear (VWS) along the western half (in particular the northwestern quadrant) of the system. Current model intensity guidance indicates the LLCC will undergo further weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours as it crosses over New Caledonia into unfavorable sea surface temperatures located south of the island and increasing VWS.
Although the system is dropping below warning threshold, several models indicate the possibility of re-development in the extended range as the LLCC tracks back to the west under the influence of a developing subtropical ridge to the south of Freda.