Tropical Cyclone Freda (05P) Northwest of New Caledonia18.6S 158.4E
Tropical Cyclone Freda (05P), located approximately 285 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked southeastward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 29 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the main convection sheared and eroded southeastward of the low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system is well to the south of a ridge axis in an area of moderate to strong (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS).
TC 05P is expected to weaken further due to the high VWS; however, after TAU 48, a building subtropical ridge to the south will cause the cyclone to deflect southwestward. An increase in outflow and a slight decrease in VWS will slightly intensify the system at the extended TAUs. The available numerical guidance widely diverge after TAU 48 and offer varying recurvature solutions. There is low confidence in the track forecast after TAU 48 and there is a distinct possibility Freda will completely dissipate after TAU 36.