Tropical Cyclone Expected to Form off Coast of India14.6N 71.7E
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible from an area of convection located approximately 85 nautical miles west-northwest of Mumbai, India.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb.
Animated enhanced infrared imagery indicates that a low level circulation center (LLCC) has continued to develop over the past 12 hours, with deep convection moving over the LLCC.
Upper level analysis shows a dual channel outflow beginning to setup over the LLCC, enhanced by a mid-latitude upper level trough over the Pakistan/India border region. This will allow for an increase in intensity over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Additionally, the area of convection is in an area of low vertical wind shear, and sea surface temperatures are favorable for development throughout the region. However, if the system continues to track towards the coast, land influences could hamper the inflow to the LLCC.
Due to increased consolidation and organization over the last 6 hours, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.