Tropical Cyclone Emang (09S) Tracking Southwestward12.5S 75.9E
Tropical Cyclone Emang (09S), located approximately 515 nm southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked southwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system has maintained overall convective banding even as the low level circulation center has moved under the central convection. The initial intensity is based on congruent Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES and FMEE. The initial position is based on the above animation with poor confidence.
Upper level analysis indicates the system is 07 degrees north of the ridge axis in an area of light to moderate 10-20 knot vertical wind shear (VWS). The cyclone is tracking along the northern periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge to the south. This ridge is expected to build over the next 12-24 hours causing Emang to track on a more westward trajectory. As the system gets closer the the ridge axis, the VWS will weaken and promote gradual intensification. The limited available numerical guidance is in tight agreement. Given the solid steering pattern and the tight grouping in the numeric guidance, there is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast.