Tropical Cyclone Edzani (07S) Expected to Maintain Intensity7.9S 75.9E
Tropical Cyclone Edzani (07S), located approximately 580 nautical miles southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked west-southwestward at 7 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet. The current intensity estimate of 125 knots is consistent with Dvorak T-numbers of 6.5 from PGTW and 6.0 from FMEE.
TC 07S has continued to intensify over the past twelve hours under the influences of high ocean heat content, low vertical wind shear, and excellent upper level outflow. A 15 nautical mile diameter eye is evident in infrared imagery as well as recent microwave passes.
The cyclone is tracking west-southwestward in the peripheral flow around a deep subtropical ridge situated to the south and east. Generally west-southwestward motion is expected to continue through the forecast period, with a poleward stairstep occurring sometime around TAU 72 as a mid-latitude trough approaching from the southeast weakens the steering ridge slightly.
Edzani is expected to approximately maintain intensity over the next 24 hours as it passes over high ocean heat content and strong upper level outflow continues. After TAU 24, a slow but steady weakening trend should commence in response to decreasing along track sea surface temperatures.
Most of the available numerical model guidance is in good agreement with the current forecast, which lies close to the model consensus. However, the UKMET model solution, which is depicting a weaker system than anticipated in the current forecast, is tracking the cyclone with the low to mid-level flow as the sole westward outlier.