Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Tracking Southward at 13 Knots13.2S 56.4E
Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 200 nm north of La Reunion, has tracked southward at 13 knots over the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows that a 16-nm ragged eye has developed over the past six hours; however, with the exception of the eyewall convection, deep convective banding has diminished. An SSMIS 37 ghz image depicts a microwave eye feature (broken ring over the north quadrant), fragmented deep convective banding north wrapping into the east quadrant and tightly-curved shallow banding elsewhere.
Based on the improved eyewall convection, the Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to 65 knots from all agencies, therefore, the initial intensity is assessed at 65 knots. This is consistent with the recent SATCON estimates of about 70 knots. There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature.
TC 07S is tracking just west of southward along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east. The system is forecast to recurve around the STR and accelerate southeastward after TAU 36. Dynamic model guidance as well as ensemble guidance is in tight agreement supporting the JTWC forecast track with high confidence.
The recent FMEE upper-air sounding also bolsters the dynamic guidance showing northeast flow at 25 to 35 knots, indicative of the strong STR and further supporting the westward bias to the forecast track. TC 07S is forecast to peak near 75 knots by TAU 12 to 24 due to the favorable upper-level conditions. By TAU 36, the system should begin to weaken due to increasing vertical wind shear (VWS) and cooler SST (less than 25C).
Dumile should begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 48 and should complete ETT by TAU 72. Concurrently, significant weakening is forecast due to cold SST (less than 20C) and strong VWS associated with strong midlatitude westerly flow impinging on the system. Maximum significant wave height is 28 feet.