Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Tracking Southeastward at 15 Knots20.8S 52.2E
Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 385 nm south of La Reunion, has tracked southeastward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a steady weakening trend for the low level circulation center (LLCC). The current intensity is based on a Dvorak estimate from PGTW that indicated 55 knots. An approaching deep layered mid-latitude trough is located to the southwest of the LLCC and has started to impact the western periphery of the system.
Upper level analysis indicates strong vertical wind shear (VWS), associated with approaching trough, will start to decouple the upper level from the LLCC and lead to an extra- tropical transition. Poor sea surface temperatures, increasing VWS and further impact from the mid-latitude trough will cause the system to finish the transition within the next 24 hours. Numerical model guidance remains in tight agreement, leading to high confidence in the forecast track.