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Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Tracking South-southeastward

15.9S 54.1E

January 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07S – December 31st, 2012

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm 07S - January 1st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07S

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 370 nm north of La Reunion, has tracked south-southeastward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 24 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows the central convection has deepened as feeder bands wrapped tighter into the low level circulation center. The initial position was based on the above animation and from a microwave pass. Upper level analysis indicates the system has maintained a mesoscale anticyclone that is enhancing radial outflow. This is readily evident on animated water vapor imagery.

The cyclone is tracking along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east that has weakened from the approach of a mid-latitude trough from the southwest. The system is expected to steadily intensify over the next 48 hours as the good radial outflow persists.

After TAU 48, the steering ridge will weaken further causing the cyclone to accelerate southeastward into the baroclinic zone. Increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will cause the system to steadily decay. TC 07S will commence extra-tropical transition by TAU 96 and become a cold-core low by TAU 120. The available numerical guidance is in excellent agreement, lending high confidence to this track forecast.

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