Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Near Madagascar – January 3rd, 201311.1S 51.5E
Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 85 nm northwest of La Reunion, has tracked southward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Here the system can be seen northeast of Madagascar. Maximum significant wave height is 34 feet.
Animated multispectral and enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows convective organization has continued to weaken and that the system has lost its eye. An AMSU-B 89 ghz microwave image continues to show a microwave eye feature but weak convection over the northern eyewall and the bulk of the deep convection is now confined to the southwestern quadrant.
The initial intensity is maintained at 65 knots, based upon congruent Dvorak intensity estimates of the same intensity from PGTW and KNES, which is consistent with the current storm structure. There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature in the microwave imagery and radar imagery from FMEE.
Upper-level analysis reveals TC 07S has strong poleward outflow into the westerlies to the south but moderate (10-20 knots) vertical wind shear (VWS). Dumile is tracking southward along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east. The system is forecast to recurve around the STR and accelerate southeastward after TAU 24 and begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 48 and complete ETT by TAU 72.
TC 07S is forecast to maintain 65 knots for the next 12 hours due to the upper-level conditions and warm sea surface temperatures (SST) (26-28 degrees Celsius) and then subsequently weaken through the forecast period due to increasing VWS and cooler SST (less than 25ºC). Dynamic model guidance as well as ensemble guidance remains in tight agreement supporting the JTWC forecast track with high confidence.