Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Maintaining Intensity11.1S 52.9E
Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 215 nm southwest of La Reunion, has tracked southward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 34 feet.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates the system remains well defined with banding wrapping into the center from the east. An SSMIS 91 ghz microwave image shows a microwave eye feature still persisting; however, the northern portion of the eyewall continues to degrade.
The majority of the deep convection is now confined to the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is maintained at 70 knots, based on the average of Dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW and KNES. There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature in the aforementioned microwave imagery.
Upper-level analysis indicates that TC 07S has strong poleward outflow into the westerlies to the south as well as an equatorward outflow channel being created by an upper level trough to the north of the low level circulation center.
Dumile currently lies in an area of moderate (10- 20 knots) vertical wind shear (VWS). The system is tracking southward along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east. The system is forecast to turn to the south-southeast and then to the southeast as it recurves around the STR and starts to accelerate by TAU 24.
TC 07S is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 36 and complete ETT by TAU 48. Dumile is forecast to weaken slightly over the next 12 hours then weaken rapidly through TAU 48 due to increasing VWS and rapidly cooling SSTs. Numerical model guidance remains in tight agreement, supporting the JTWC forecast track with high confidence.