Tropical Cyclone Bongani (02S) Expected to Track into Mozambique Channel9.1S 49.9E
Tropical Cyclone Bongani (02S), located approximately 560 nm north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked south-southwestward at 11 knots over the past six hours. The maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.
The forecast has been shifted south of the previous forecast based on a WSAT Coriolis 37h microwave image that shows a formative microwave eye south-of-track.
Despite the improved low level microwave signature evidenced in the aforementioned microwave image, deep convection has waned over the past 12 hours. Consequently, Dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW underestimate the current intensity.
The cyclone will continue to track just south of west along the western periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge that is building east to west. Slow intensification is expected under the influence of generally favorable environmental conditions. However, the peak intensity has been decreased to 65 knots based on the latest intensity guidance.
The forecast track will bend increasingly poleward as the cyclone tracks into the Mozambique Channel due to the influence of an approaching upper level trough that will temporarily erode and re-orient the steering ridge. In addition, the trough will provide increased poleward venting before vertical wind shear elevates beyond TAU 72. After the trough passes the forecast track will flatten and the system will track inland over interior Mozambique, and will dissipate.