Tropical Cyclone 19P Tracks Southwest24.7S 173.1E
Tropical Cyclone 19P, located approximately 200 nm southeast of Suva, Fiji, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots during the past six hours. The main image shows the storm as it was organizing on the 22nd, while the animated imagery shows its recent track.
Animated infrared imagery shows continuing intensification and consolidation of convection around the low level circulation center (LLCC). An SSMI image reveals abundant curved banding wrapping into the LLCC, although deep convection is suppressed over the western quadrant.
The current intensity is based on a Dvorak estimate of 35 knots. Water vapor animation shows an approaching mid-latitude trough enhancing outflow over the southeastern quadrant, which will act to deepen the system over the short term. However, the trough is also causing some inhibition of outflow over the western portion of the system, but overall 19P exists in a region of weak vertical wind shear.
TC 19P is currently steering along the western periphery of an anticyclone to the southeast but is beginning to take a more southerly track due to the influence of the encroaching upper level trough. The trough is not expected to couple with the LLCC, which will resume a southwestward track as the trough passes after TAU 48.
Additionally, strong vertical wind shear associated with a deeper mid-latitude trough, currently moving over Brisbane, Australia, will rapidly weaken and dissipate the system by TAU 72. Maximum significant wave height at 15 feet.