Tropical Cyclone 04A South-Southwest of Mumbai, India, and Tracking Northward17.2N 72.9E
Tropical Cyclone 04A, located approximately 245 nm south-southwest of Mumbai, India, has tracked northward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.
The cyclone can be viewed best by opening the full image, in which convection associated with the system can be seen reaching northeastward towards the Himalayas and extending far south down the coast.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a TMI 37 ghz image depict a large monsoon-like circulation with improved convective banding over the north semi-circle and weak banding elsewhere.
The low-level circulation center has slowly consolidated under favorable poleward venting ahead of a midlatitude shortwave trough propagating over the western Arabian Sea, however, the current intensity has been held steady based on estimates of 35 knots and the 35-knot unflagged scatterometer winds.
TC 04A is forecast to continue tracking northward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and should track under increasing vertical wind shear (VWS) associated with the aforementioned midlatitude shortwave trough. Available model guidance are in good agreement through TAU 48 and support this northward track philosophy.
The system should intensify 10-15 knots over the next 24-36 hours but is likely to weaken quickly after TAU 24 due to strong VWS in excess of 50 knots and interaction with land after TAU 36. TC 04A is expected to dissipate over land between TAU 48 and 72.