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Tropical Cyclone 04A Expected to Make Landfall Over Somalia

8.0N 55.8E

December 24th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression ARB 02 – December 22nd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Depression ARB 02 - December 22nd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TD ARB 02

Deep Depression ARB 02 has strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 04A. The system is currently located approximately 280 nm southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia, after tracking westward at 17 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system has maintained organization and deep convective bands around a well-defined low level circulation center. The cyclone continues to exhibit good outflow on the poleward side which is countering the negative effects of moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear (VWS), as evident on animated water vapor satellite imagery. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.

With little change in the upper level environment along the forecast track, TC 04A is expected to maintain its current intensity until it makes landfall along the northeast coast of Somalia after TAU 24. The system will dissipate over land by TAU 36 due to increased vws and land interaction.

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