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Formation of Significant Tropical Cyclone Possible in Indian Ocean

8.1N 94.0E

November 4th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection - November 3rd, 2010

Enhanced image

Track of Area of Convection

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within 200 nm either side of a line from 8.2N 94.0E to 8.8N 87.1E within the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. A circulation center is located near 8.0N 92.7E. The system is moving westward at 12 knots.

An area of convection previously located 235 nm north-northwest of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is now located near 8.0N 92.7E, approximately 790 nm east-southeast of Chennai, India.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows increased deep convection and an SSMI microwave image depicts improved low level convective banding wrapping into a low level circulation center (LLCC).

Although, there has been moderate vertical wind shear (25 knots), the LLCC has continued to organize within the past 12 hours. The system is located beneath an area of upper level divergence and water vapor imagery indicates good radial outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. Eue to the consolidation of the LLCC, upper level divergence, and high sea surface temperatures, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

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