Eye of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 16th, 20127.7S 60.7E
Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S), located approximately 650 nm northeast of La Reunion, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows convection has continued to decrease around a ragged eye. Intensity is estimated at 102 knots. Recent water vapor imagery and upper level streamline analysis indicate TC 01S has good poleward outflow and is located just south of a ridge axis in a region of favorable (5-15 knot) vertical wind shear.
Anais is currently near the 26 degree celsius isotherm and will continue tracking into cooler waters. These cooler SSTS along with increasing vertical wind shear are expected to decrease the intensity of the system. Anais should begin extratropical transition (ET) around TAU 96 and complete ET by TAU 120.
TC 01S is tracking along the northwestern quadrant of a deep layered subtropical ridge (STR), and is expected to continue through TAU 96, when a weakness within the
STR allows the system to track more poleward. Based on current model guidance, there is high confidence in the track and intensity forecast. Maximum significant wave height is 34 feet.