Convection Associated with Tropical Cyclone Five (05B) South of Irrawaddy Delta – November 5th, 201010.4N 86.7E
Tropical Cyclone Five (05B), located approximately 500 nm east-southeast of Chennai, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The main images focuses on convection associated with the storm, south of the Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) delta in Myanmar.
The cyclone has maintained an intensity of 45 knots as it consolidates under moderate vertical wind shear. Banding features are still somewhat fragmented in enhanced infrared imagery. However, central convection continues to build.
Dvorak estimates from PGTW have steadied at a 3.0/3.0 or 45 knots over the past few fix cycles. The current position is based on imagery that places the low level circulation center within the eastern semicircle as convection shears westward.
The system is tracking along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge located to the north of the cyclone. It will continue to track along this ridge throughout the forecast, making landfall with India after TAU 48, but not before strengthening to near 75 knots.
A decrease in vertical wind shear, favorable upper-tropospheric outflow mechanisms, and a deep pool of warm water will all support intensification. After landfall the system will rapidly weaken and dissipate prior to emerging into the Arabian Sea. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.