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Blanca Dissipates, New System Forms

14.6N 110.3W

July 10th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Formation - July 9th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Formation - July 9th, 2009

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Track of TC formation - July 10th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC formation

As Tropical Storm Blanca (03E) dissipates off the western coast of Mexico, a new contestant has already begun preparing to come into play: an area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California continues to show signs of organization.

Conditions appear to be favorable for this system to become a tropical depression on Friday as it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. There is a high chance, greater than 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 20 to 25 knots, and the system is moving west-northwestward at 6 knots. Recent NHC pressure estimates show a decrease in sea level pressure of over 2 mb in the past 24 hours. It is now estimated to be near 1007 mb.

Recent animated multispectral imagery indicates that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has begun to organize with convective banding wrapping into it from all quadrants.

Upper level analysis reveals that the system is in a region of moderate vertical wind shear, but the system has good equatorward outflow and improving poleward outflow due to interaction with an upper level low located north of the system.

The remnants of Blanca, on the other hand, located about 950 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, are producing a few showers while moving northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.

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