Area of Convection Persisting by Mozambique Coast17.8S 37.4E
The area of convection previously located near 19.8S 41.3E, is now located near 19.5S 40.1E (click here for previous images), approximately 390 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The system is actually situated by the coast of Mozambique, which can be seen through the convection in the full image due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated low-level circulation center (LLCC) with isolated deep convection flaring over the west quadrant. An SSMI 37 ghz image indicates only weak, shallow convective banding wrapping loosely into the LLCC.
A ASCAT image shows an elongated circulation center with 20 to 25 knot winds; some stronger winds were indicated over the southern semi-circle but were surrounded by rain-flagged data. Upper-level analysis indicates a generally unfavorable environment with moderate (20 to 25 knots) vertical wind shear.
The system is located west of an anticyclone and is under diffluent, easterly flow; however, poleward and equatorward outflow remain limited. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.