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Area of Convection Over Gulf of Carpentaria Has Medium Chance of Becoming Cyclone

January 21st, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 20th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Area of Convection - January 20th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection is located near 16.6S 136.9E, approximately 425 nm southeast of Darwin, Australia.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a steady increase in deep convection over the northern half of a poorly defined low level circulation center (LLCC). The LLCC continues to track eastward towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, but currently remains over land. In the full image, the outline of the gulf can be observed in grey, through the convection, due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.

Radar imagery from Mornington Island, Australia supports the LLCC approaching the coast. Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is located poleward of a subtropical ridge axis and in a region of weak upper level convergence, which is hampering outflow. Observations in the vicinity of the LLCC indicate a central pressure of approximately 998 mb.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 998 mb. Based on the persistent deep convection and the LLCC approaching the Gulf of Carpentaria, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

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