Area of Convection Off Coast of Madagascar22.8S 37.9E
An area of convection is located near 21.2S 39.8E, approximately 425 nm west- southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Here, the coast of Madagascar can be seen through the convection thanks to the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature, which overlays countries’ boundaries on satellite images.
The system is located just poleward of the subtropical ridge (STR) axis and is under weak to moderate (10 to 20 knots) westerly vertical wind shear (VWS). Sea surface temperatures are favorable at 29 to 30 degrees Celsius.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a well-defined lowlevel circulation center (LLCC) with formative convective banding over the eastern semi- circle. An SSMIS 37ghz microwave image shows fragmented shallow convection to the north of the LLCC.
Dynamic models indicate steady development over the next 2 to 3 days as the system tracks equatorward further under the STR with decreasing VWS. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.