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Area of Convection Off Australia Coast Has High Probability of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

13.6S 118.3E

January 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 6th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 6th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible in the Timor Sea, off the coast of Australia, within 120 nm either side of a line from 11.1S 121.5E to 13.4S 118.2E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. METSAT imagery indicates that a circulation center is located near 11.4S 120.9E. The system is moving westward at 09 knots.

The area of convection previously located near 11.0S 123.5E  (click here for previous images) is now located near 11.4S 120.9E, approximately 590 nm west of Darwin, Australia. Recent multispectral and enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidation of convection, with fragmented bands wrapping around a low level circulation center (LLCC).

Upper level analysis indicates this area is approximately five degrees north of an anticyclone, providing good outflow and low (10 knots) vertical wind shear. Additionally, as the system moves southward, strong gradient-induced upper level winds moving into the southwestern region of Australia should further enhance the outflow over the next 24 hours.

Sea surface temperatures are a very favorable 30-31 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. Due to increased consolidation of the LLCC, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

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