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Area of Convection Near Australia Has High Chance of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

16.1S 150.4E

March 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – March 6th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - March 6th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection is located near 17.7S 153.4E, approximately 215nm east- southeast of Willis Island, Australia. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated but consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with flaring deep convection near the LLCC and improved convective banding in the northern and southern peripheries.

An ASCAT pass reveals the overall elongated orientation of the system as it is embedded within the monsoon trough and also shows the strongest winds are located in the peripheries. Upper-level analysis continues to show a developing anticyclone near the center with good poleward and equatorward outflow.

The LLCC is currently located in an area of moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS) with areas of strong VWS located just to the north and south of the system. Sea surface temperatures are favorable at 28 to 30 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 996 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

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