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Area of Convection Continues Near Madagascar and Mozambique

January 22nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 21st, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 21st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The area of convection previously located near 24.7S 37.5E (click here for previous images) is now located near 23.6S 38.8E, approximately 535 nm southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and east of Mozambique. In the full image, the outline of the coast of Mozambique can be observed in grey, through the convection.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection sheared southeast of center. A WINDSAT 37 ghz image indicates shallow convective banding wrapping tightly into an elongated LLCC. An ASCAT image depicts a highly asymmetric wind field with 30 to 35 knot winds. Upper-level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located east of the subtropical ridge and is embedded within the upper-level trough.

The system is under strong northwesterly vertical wind shear (20 to 30 knots) and is positioned just equatorward of the subtropical jet and strong northwesterly flow (50 to 70 knots), which is providing excellent poleward outflow. The system is assessed as subtropical and has potential to transition into a warm-core system within the next two to three days as it tracks slowly eastward.

Dynamic models indicate that the subtropical ridge will re-build over the LLCC and the total precipitable water imagery indicates a deep moisture core sufficient for further development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

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