Area of Convection by Madagascar Upgraded to Medium Chance for Tropical Cyclone Formation20.1S 39.3E
The area of convection previously located near 16.5S 37.7E, is now located near 16.4S 38.4E, approximately 510 nm north- northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar (click here for previous images). Here, the country’s coastline can be seen through the convection thanks to the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.
The area of convection previously located near 16.5S 37.7E, is now located near 16.4S 38.4E, approximately 510 nm north- northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery reveals formative banding wrapping into a low level circulation center (LLCC) that is located over Mozambique. The LLCC is tracking eastward, heading toward the open water of the Mozambique Channel. The IR and total precipitable water loops suggest that tight turning over the channel may be consolidating and forming a new LLCC.
Upper level analysis indicates a point source has developed over the system, providing good outflow. Vertical wind shear (VWS) is moderate (20 knots). Sea surface temperatures remain favorable for development at 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Numerical models indicate development is likely over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. Due to improved banding and favorable conditions over the Mozambique Channel, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.