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Area of Convection by Madagascar Now Has High Probability of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

21.2S 38.6E

February 18th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of convection – February 17th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Area of Convection - February 18th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

The area of convection previously located near 19.7S 39.9E (click here for previous images), is now located near 19.4S 40.0E, approximately 395 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Here, the coastline of Madagascar can be seen through the convection  thanks to the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows formative bands that are consolidating and wrapping tighter into a broad low level circulation center (LLCC) from the northern and eastern peripheries.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is just south of a ridge axis that is enhancing outflow especially along the eastern flank; however, moderate (20 knot) vertical wind shear is displacing the main convection from the LLCC.

SSTs remain favorable for development at 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Numerical models indicate development is likely over the next 24-36 hours, albeit with varying trajectories. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. Due to the improved overall structure of the system and the sustained favorable environmental conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

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