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Area of Convection by Australia Still Has Medium Probability of Becoming Cyclone

18.4S 118.1E

January 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 15th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The area of convection previously located near 14.4S 121.4E, is now located near 15.4S 119.1E, approximately 490 nm northeast of Learmonth, Australia.

Animated enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery indicates the system has maintained its overall convective structure even as it continues to be sheared westward. Upper level analysis indicates the cyclone is well to the north of the subtropical high anchored over central Australia, in an area of moderate 20-25 knot easterly vertical wind shear.

Animated water vapor satellite imagery shows good northwestward outflow is helping sustain the convection. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. In view of the sustained environmental conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains a medium.

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