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Area of Convection by Australia Coast Has Medium Chance of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

17.5S 119.5E

January 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 14th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection now located near 14.4S 121.4E, approximately 625 nm northeast of Learmonth, Australia, has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

Animated enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery indicates the system has reformed over 05 degrees west-southwestward of the previous location and, aided by diurnal effects, has deepened significantly. Additionally, formative banding is now apparent along the northwest periphery.

Upper level analysis indicates the cyclone is well to the north of the subtropical high anchored over central Australia, in an area of moderate 20-25 knot easterly vertical wind shear. The EIR animation shows the main convection being displaced westward from the low level circulation. Animated water vapor satellite imagery shows good westward and poleward outflow are helping sustain the convection.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. In view of the increased and deepened convection and anticipated continued favorable outflow, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

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