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Area of Convection Between Madagscar and Mozambique Could Become Cyclone

23.4S 37.2E

January 22nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 21st, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 21st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection is located near 24.7S 37.5E, approximately 275 nm east-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection sheared approximately 55 nm southeast of center. An AMSU image indicates formative deep convective banding over the southeast quadrant and disorganized, shallow banding elsewhere.

An ASCAT image depicts a highly asymmetric wind field with 35 to 40 knot winds displaced south and southeast of a weak (15 to 25 knots) core. Upper-level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located east of the subtropical ridge and is embedded within the upper-level trough.

The system is under strong northwesterly vertical wind shear (20 to 40 knots) and is positioned just equatorward of the subtropical jet and strong northwesterly flow (50 to 60 knots), which is providing excellent poleward outflow. The system is assessed as subtropical and has potential to transition into a warm- core system within the next two to three days as it tracks slowly eastward.

Dynamic models indicate that the subtropical ridge will re- build over the LLCC and the total precipitable water imagery indicates a deep moisture core sufficient for further development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 to 40 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

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