Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S) in Indian Ocean15.5S 71.9E
Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S), located approximately 515 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked west-southwestward at 10 knots during the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convective banding wrapping into a low level circulation center. The initial intensity is based on estimates of 40 knots.
Upper level analysis indicates the system is under a point source with low vertical wind shear and favorable radial outflow. Sea surface temperatures are favorable (26 degrees celsius).
TC 18S is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a low- to mid-level steering ridge and is expected to track generally west-southwestward during the first 48 hours.
As the system intensifies, the primary steering mechanism will become more mid- to upper-level and result in a more southwesterly track for 18S.
Around TAU 72, vertical wind shear associated with an upper level trough will cause the system to begin weakening. Peak intensity has been adjusted to 70 knots from 55 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.